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Wisła Płock II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Wisła Płock II

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 49.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.0%0-23.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.8%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-15.9%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Draw 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

Away win 24.0% 34.7% 2.88 -18.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 44.1% 2.27 -26.7%

BTTS 53.7% 70.4% 1.42 -23.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 56.5% 1.77 -12.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 48.1% 2.08 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.7%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisła Płock II1.8

Lechia T. Mazowiecki1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WISŁA PŁOCK II · PPG 1.67

LECHIA T. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.02

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wisła Płock II (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -0.2%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.3%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisła Płock II face Lechia T. Mazowiecki in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisła Płock II a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Lechia T. Mazowiecki 24%, so Wisła Płock II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Wisła Płock II and 1.2 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisła Płock II are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.02 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. This match finished 2-1.

Wisła Płock II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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