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Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Widzew II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Ząbkovia Ząbki

PPG 1.52 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Widzew II

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.9%0-24.0%0-33.7%0-4+4.9%1 1-01.9%1-15.2%1-27.2%1-36.6%1-4+8.8%2 2-01.7%2-14.7%2-26.5%2-35.9%2-4+8.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.8%3-23.9%3-33.6%3-4+4.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.9%4+-22.6%4+-32.4%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 53.2% — — —

Over 2.5 73.3% — — —

Over 3.5 53.6% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 65.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob69.6%

A 53% / xG 1.8-2.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 1–3 6.6%

#3 2–2 6.5%

#4 1–1 5.2%

#5 2–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ząbkovia Ząbki1.8

Widzew II2.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZĄBKOVIA ZĄBKI · PPG 1.52

WIDZEW II · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ząbkovia Ząbki (H) 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Widzew II (A) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ząbkovia Ząbki face Widzew II in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ząbkovia Ząbki a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Widzew II 53%, so Widzew II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ząbkovia Ząbki and 2.8 for Widzew II (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ząbkovia Ząbki are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.64 for Widzew II. This match finished 1-0.

Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Widzew II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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