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Wigry Suwałki vs Troszyn Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:47

Wigry Suwałki

PPG 2.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Troszyn

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-12.7%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.2%1-17.1%1-24.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.9%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-19.6%4+-25.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.7% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 19.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 61% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wigry Suwałki2.6

Troszyn1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WIGRY SUWAŁKI · PPG 2.15

TROSZYN · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Wigry Suwałki (H) 60.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Troszyn (A) 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Wigry Suwałki face Troszyn in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wigry Suwałki a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Troszyn 19%, so Wigry Suwałki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Wigry Suwałki and 1.1 for Troszyn (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wigry Suwałki are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.20 for Troszyn.

Wigry Suwałki vs Troszyn Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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