Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 1 / Widzew II vs Troszyn

Widzew II vs Troszyn Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I - 1 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 10:00

Widzew II

PPG 1.48 · HOME

UPCOMING

Troszyn

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.1%0-23.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.4%1-18.0%1-27.4%1-34.5%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.8%3-15.2%3-24.8%3-32.9%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.0%4+-23.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 62.1% 1.61 -27.9%

Draw 21.7% 22.7% 4.40 -2.7%

Away win 33.6% 23.5% 4.25 +42.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 70.9% 1.41 -5.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 49.5% 2.02 -9.5%

BTTS 63.5% 67.6% 1.48 -6.0%

Home O1.5 53.6% 68.5% 1.46 -21.7%

Away O1.5 50.0% 39.7% 2.52 +26.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew II2.0

Troszyn1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW II · PPG 1.48

TROSZYN · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Widzew II (H) 44.8%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -27.9%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -2.7%

Troszyn (A) 33.6%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV +42.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew II face Troszyn in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew II a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Troszyn 34%, so Widzew II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Widzew II and 1.8 for Troszyn (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew II are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.44 for Troszyn. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +31.4%.

Widzew II vs Troszyn Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 1 Predictions