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Olimpia Elbląg vs Wisła Płock II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Group I - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:00

Olimpia Elbląg

PPG 1.21 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wisła Płock II

PPG 1.52 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.4%0-25.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.4%1-110.3%1-28.4%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.3%2-26.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.7%3-14.4%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.5%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 45.5% 2.20 -10.5%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 35.0% 38.2% 2.62 -8.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 62.5% 1.60 +1.8%

Over 3.5 40.2% 41.5% 2.41 -3.1%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 51.8% 1.93 -4.7%

Away O1.5 48.0% 47.4% 2.11 +1.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

A 35% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–0 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia Elbląg1.6

Wisła Płock II1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA ELBLĄG · PPG 1.21

WISŁA PŁOCK II · PPG 1.52

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia Elbląg (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Wisła Płock II (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia Elbląg face Wisła Płock II in Poland - III Liga - Group 1 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia Elbląg a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Wisła Płock II 35%, so Olimpia Elbląg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Olimpia Elbląg and 1.6 for Wisła Płock II (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia Elbląg are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.52 for Wisła Płock II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Olimpia Elbląg vs Wisła Płock II Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 1 Predictions