Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland / IFK Umeå vs Storfors

IFK Umeå vs Storfors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

IFK Umeå

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Storfors

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.5%0-25.8%0-34.0%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.1%1-18.5%1-28.9%1-36.2%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.2%2-16.6%2-26.9%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.6%3-13.4%3-23.5%3-32.5%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 44.3% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 55.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 44% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Umeå1.5

Storfors2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK UMEÅ · PPG 0.43

STORFORS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Umeå (H) 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Storfors (A) 44.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Umeå face Storfors in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Umeå a 33% chance, the draw 22% and Storfors 44%, so Storfors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for IFK Umeå and 2.1 for Storfors (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Umeå are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.67 for Storfors.

IFK Umeå vs Storfors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland Predictions