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Fransta vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Fransta

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Friska Viljor

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.6%0-25.9%0-34.1%0-4+3.5%1 1-04.1%1-18.6%1-29.0%1-36.2%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.5%2-26.8%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.6%3-13.3%3-23.5%3-32.4%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 46.5% — — —

Over 2.5 66.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 55.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 46% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fransta1.5

Friska Viljor2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FRANSTA · PPG 0.83

FRISKA VILJOR · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Fransta (H) 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Friska Viljor (A) 46.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fransta face Friska Viljor in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fransta a 31% chance, the draw 23% and Friska Viljor 47%, so Friska Viljor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fransta and 2.1 for Friska Viljor (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fransta are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Friska Viljor.

Fransta vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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