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IFK Umeå vs Fransta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

IFK Umeå

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fransta

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.0%0-23.9%0-33.4%0-4+4.1%1 1-02.2%1-15.6%1-27.3%1-36.3%1-4+7.6%2 2-02.0%2-15.2%2-26.8%2-35.9%2-4+7.1%3 3-01.2%3-13.2%3-24.2%3-33.6%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.3%4+-23.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 47.5% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.7% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 65.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.6%

A 48% / xG 1.9-2.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.3%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–3✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Umeå1.9

Fransta2.6

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK UMEÅ · PPG 0.50

FRANSTA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.74 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Umeå (H) 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fransta (A) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Umeå face Fransta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Umeå a 31% chance, the draw 22% and Fransta 48%, so Fransta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for IFK Umeå and 2.6 for Fransta (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Umeå are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Fransta. This match finished 2-3.

IFK Umeå vs Fransta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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