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Umea FF vs Umeå FC Akademi Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Relegation Round ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Umea FF

PPG 0.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Umeå FC Akademi

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.0%0-22.7%0-31.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.9%1-16.9%1-26.2%1-33.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.3%3-16.0%3-25.4%3-33.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.9%4+-25.3%4+-33.2%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 29.0% — — —

Over 2.5 68.8% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.4%

H 49% / xG 2.3-1.8 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea FF2.3

Umeå FC Akademi1.8

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA FF · PPG 0.33

UMEÅ FC AKADEMI · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Umea FF (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Umeå FC Akademi (A) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea FF face Umeå FC Akademi in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea FF a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Umeå FC Akademi 29%, so Umea FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Umea FF and 1.8 for Umeå FC Akademi (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea FF are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Umeå FC Akademi.

Umea FF vs Umeå FC Akademi Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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