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IFK Luleå vs Boden Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 17:00

IFK Luleå

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boden

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.0%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-19.9%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.5%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 54.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 21.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Luleå2.0

Boden0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK LULEÅ · PPG 1.86

BODEN · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Luleå (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Boden (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Luleå face Boden in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Luleå a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Boden 22%, so IFK Luleå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for IFK Luleå and 0.9 for Boden (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Luleå are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.29 for Boden.

IFK Luleå vs Boden Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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