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Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Union St. Gilloise

PPG 2.34 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zulte Waregem

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.5%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-19.4%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-16.9%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.0%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 75.2% 1.33 -24.6%

Draw 21.8% 20.8% 4.80 +2.8%

Away win 21.5% 10.5% 9.50 +62.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 61.7% 1.62 -3.6%

Over 3.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

BTTS 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Home O1.5 59.8% 71.4% 1.40 -16.3%

Away O1.5 23.8% 21.1% 4.75 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union St. Gilloise2.1

Zulte Waregem0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION ST. GILLOISE · PPG 2.34

ZULTE WAREGEM · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union St. Gilloise (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -24.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.8%

Zulte Waregem (A) 21.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +62.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union St. Gilloise face Zulte Waregem in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union St. Gilloise a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Zulte Waregem 22%, so Union St. Gilloise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.9 for Zulte Waregem (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.34 points per game versus 1.25 for Zulte Waregem. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +43.7%.

Union St. Gilloise vs Zulte Waregem Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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