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Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:45

Cercle Brugge

PPG 1.03 · HOME

UPCOMING

St. Truiden

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.6%0-26.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.5%1-111.9%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.3%2-25.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.7%3-13.8%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 44.4% 2.25 -10.0%

Draw 24.7% 28.2% 3.55 -7.4%

Away win 35.3% 34.5% 2.90 +2.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.0%

BTTS 57.6% 64.5% 1.55 -10.7%

Home O1.5 41.6% 50.0% 2.00 -16.8%

Away O1.5 42.6% 42.6% 2.35 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.6%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.1%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cercle Brugge1.4

St. Truiden1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CERCLE BRUGGE · PPG 1.03

ST. TRUIDEN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cercle Brugge (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -10.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.4%

St. Truiden (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cercle Brugge face St. Truiden in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cercle Brugge a 40% chance, the draw 25% and St. Truiden 35%, so Cercle Brugge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cercle Brugge and 1.4 for St. Truiden (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.50 for St. Truiden. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.5%.

Cercle Brugge vs St. Truiden Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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