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Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Charleroi

PPG 1.30 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

OH Leuven

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.0%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-112.2%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Draw 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -5.1%

Away win 24.8% 25.0% 4.00 -0.5%

Over 2.5 51.1% 50.0% 2.00 +2.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 28.2% 3.55 +3.3%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Away O1.5 32.0% 29.4% 3.40 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleroi1.5

OH Leuven1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLEROI · PPG 1.30

OH LEUVEN · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charleroi (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

OH Leuven (A) 24.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleroi face OH Leuven in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleroi a 49% chance, the draw 26% and OH Leuven 25%, so Charleroi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Charleroi and 1.0 for OH Leuven (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleroi are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.17 for OH Leuven. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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