Today / Belgium - Jupiler Pro League / St. Truiden vs Lommel United

St. Truiden vs Lommel United Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:45

St. Truiden

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lommel United

PPG 2.04 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.6%0-27.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-17.6%2-25.6%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 61.7% 1.62 -42.3%

Draw 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -4.4%

Away win 40.0% 19.0% 5.25 +110.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 36.1% 58.8% 1.70 -38.6%

Away O1.5 45.7% 27.4% 3.65 +66.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Truiden1.3

Lommel United1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. TRUIDEN · PPG 1.86

LOMMEL UNITED · PPG 2.04

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

St. Truiden (H) 35.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -42.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.4%

Lommel United (A) 40.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +110.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Truiden face Lommel United in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Truiden a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Lommel United 40%, so Lommel United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for St. Truiden and 1.5 for Lommel United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Truiden are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 2.04 for Lommel United. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +66.8%. This match finished 1-1.

St. Truiden vs Lommel United Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Belgium - Jupiler Pro League Predictions