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Standard Liege vs Cercle Brugge Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:15

Standard Liege

PPG 1.24 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cercle Brugge

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.0%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.5%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Draw 26.9% 29.0% 3.45 -4.3%

Away win 28.5% 34.7% 2.88 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.3% 1.95 +4.1%

Over 3.5 30.6% 29.0% 3.45 +5.6%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 42.5% 44.4% 2.25 -4.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.2% 2.62 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Standard Liege1.4

Cercle Brugge1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STANDARD LIEGE · PPG 1.24

CERCLE BRUGGE · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Standard Liege (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.3%

Cercle Brugge (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Standard Liege face Cercle Brugge in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Standard Liege a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Cercle Brugge 28%, so Standard Liege are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Standard Liege and 1.2 for Cercle Brugge (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Standard Liege are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.50 for Cercle Brugge. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Standard Liege vs Cercle Brugge Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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