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KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:45

KVC Westerlo

PPG 1.34 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Union St. Gilloise

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.5%0-27.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.4%2-17.2%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 23.8% 4.20 +42.0%

Draw 27.7% 26.3% 3.80 +3.2%

Away win 38.5% 57.1% 1.75 -32.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 54.6% 1.83 -8.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 31.3% 3.20 +2.7%

Away O1.5 43.7% 56.5% 1.77 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

A 38% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KVC Westerlo1.1

Union St. Gilloise1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KVC WESTERLO · PPG 1.34

UNION ST. GILLOISE · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.21, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KVC Westerlo (H) 33.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +42.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +3.2%

Union St. Gilloise (A) 38.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KVC Westerlo face Union St. Gilloise in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KVC Westerlo a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Union St. Gilloise 39%, so Union St. Gilloise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for KVC Westerlo and 1.3 for Union St. Gilloise (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.50 for Union St. Gilloise. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%. This match finished 1-5.

KVC Westerlo vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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