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Zulte Waregem vs Genk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Zulte Waregem

PPG 1.54 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Genk

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.5%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.2%1-111.7%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 33.3% 3.00 +38.6%

Draw 24.8% 27.4% 3.65 -5.7%

Away win 29.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

BTTS 57.8% 63.7% 1.57 -9.3%

Home O1.5 45.5% 41.7% 2.40 +9.2%

Away O1.5 35.7% 51.3% 1.95 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.9%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zulte Waregem1.6

Genk1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ZULTE WAREGEM · PPG 1.54

GENK · PPG 1.49

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zulte Waregem (H) 46.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +38.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.7%

Genk (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zulte Waregem face Genk in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zulte Waregem a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Genk 29%, so Zulte Waregem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zulte Waregem and 1.3 for Genk (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.49 for Genk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Zulte Waregem vs Genk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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