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Kristianstad vs Tvååker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 14:00

Kristianstad

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tvååker

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.9%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 45.5% 2.20 -13.1%

Draw 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

Away win 33.5% 35.7% 2.80 -6.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Home O1.5 31.7% 51.3% 1.95 -38.2%

Away O1.5 34.6% 43.5% 2.30 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad1.2

Tvååker1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 1.12

TVÅÅKER · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -13.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.3%

Tvååker (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad face Tvååker in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Tvååker 34%, so Kristianstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kristianstad and 1.1 for Tvååker (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.14 for Tvååker.

Kristianstad vs Tvååker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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