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Tvååker vs Atvidabergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Tvååker

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atvidabergs FF

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.3%0-26.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.0%1-111.7%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 36.4% 2.75 +10.3%

Draw 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -8.3%

Away win 34.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.5%

Over 2.5 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 38.5% 2.60 -4.3%

BTTS 61.8% 66.7% 1.50 -7.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Away O1.5 43.7% 51.8% 1.93 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.8%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2✓ 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tvååker1.4

Atvidabergs FF1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TVÅÅKER · PPG 1.75

ATVIDABERGS FF · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tvååker (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +10.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.3%

Atvidabergs FF (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvååker face Atvidabergs FF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvååker a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Atvidabergs FF 35%, so Tvååker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tvååker and 1.5 for Atvidabergs FF (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvååker are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.29 for Atvidabergs FF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Tvååker vs Atvidabergs FF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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