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Orkla vs Spjelkavik Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Orkla

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Spjelkavik

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.4%0-23.6%0-32.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-03.3%1-16.9%1-27.2%1-35.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.4%2-17.0%2-27.3%2-35.1%2-4+4.3%3 3-02.3%3-14.7%3-24.9%3-33.4%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.8%4+-24.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 40.7% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 49.8% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 54.8% — — —

Away O1.5 55.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.4%

A 41% / xG 2.0-2.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.9%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 2–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orkla2.0

Spjelkavik2.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ORKLA · PPG 0.88

SPJELKAVIK · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orkla (H) 38.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Spjelkavik (A) 40.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Orkla face Spjelkavik in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orkla a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Spjelkavik 41%, so Spjelkavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Orkla and 2.1 for Spjelkavik (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orkla are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.43 for Spjelkavik.

Orkla vs Spjelkavik Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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