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Nardo vs Melhus Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 13:00

Nardo

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Melhus

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.0%0-25.2%0-33.5%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.1%1-18.3%1-28.6%1-35.8%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.1%2-34.8%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.9%3-32.7%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 40.1% — — —

Over 2.5 64.7% — — —

Over 3.5 42.9% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 47.8% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.3%

A 40% / xG 1.7-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nardo1.7

Melhus2.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NARDO · PPG 1.86

MELHUS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nardo (H) 38.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Melhus (A) 40.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nardo face Melhus in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nardo a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Melhus 40%, so Melhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nardo and 2.0 for Melhus (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nardo are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.75 for Melhus.

Nardo vs Melhus Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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