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Red Lions vs Kamuzu Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Red Lions

PPG 2.60 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kamuzu Barracks

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-16.3%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-110.6%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.7%3-15.0%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 17.4% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.1% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0✓ 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Lions1.7

Kamuzu Barracks0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RED LIONS · PPG 2.60

KAMUZU BARRACKS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Red Lions (H) 57.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kamuzu Barracks (A) 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Lions face Kamuzu Barracks in Malawi - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Lions a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Kamuzu Barracks 17%, so Red Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Red Lions and 0.7 for Kamuzu Barracks (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Lions are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.60 for Kamuzu Barracks. This match finished 0-0.

Red Lions vs Kamuzu Barracks Prediction— Malawi - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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