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Skellefteå vs IFK Luleå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Skellefteå

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Luleå

PPG 2.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.6%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.3%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 52.4% 1.91 -8.5%

Draw 23.4% 26.7% 3.75 -7.3%

Away win 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

Over 2.5 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Over 3.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

BTTS 60.9% 70.4% 1.42 -13.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.9%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skellefteå1.7

IFK Luleå1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SKELLEFTEÅ · PPG 2.29

IFK LULEÅ · PPG 2.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Skellefteå (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -8.5%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -7.3%

IFK Luleå (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skellefteå face IFK Luleå in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skellefteå a 48% chance, the draw 23% and IFK Luleå 29%, so Skellefteå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Skellefteå and 1.1 for IFK Luleå (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skellefteå are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 2.57 for IFK Luleå.

Skellefteå vs IFK Luleå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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