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Talant vs Ilbirs Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 14:30

Talant

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilbirs

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.2%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-111.0%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.8%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 31.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talant1.8

Ilbirs1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TALANT · PPG 1.00

ILBIRS · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Talant (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ilbirs (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Talant face Ilbirs in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talant a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Ilbirs 21%, so Talant are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Talant and 1.0 for Ilbirs (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talant are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.62 for Ilbirs.

Talant vs Ilbirs Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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