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Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:30

Lask Linz

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grazer AK

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.2%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.1%1-111.0%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.8%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 60.6% 1.65 -14.2%

Draw 24.1% 26.0% 3.85 -4.3%

Away win 23.9% 20.8% 4.80 +8.8%

Over 2.5 57.9% 57.1% 1.75 +1.3%

Over 3.5 33.7% 35.1% 2.85 -4.0%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 49.4% 59.9% 1.67 -17.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 30.3% 3.30 +20.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lask Linz1.8

Grazer AK1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LASK LINZ · PPG 1.86

GRAZER AK · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lask Linz (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -14.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.3%

Grazer AK (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lask Linz face Grazer AK in Austria - Bundesliga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lask Linz a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Grazer AK 24%, so Lask Linz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lask Linz and 1.1 for Grazer AK (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lask Linz are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.01 for Grazer AK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.8%.

Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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