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Böljan vs Åstorp Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

Böljan

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Åstorp

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.0%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.3%1-19.9%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.5%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 37.0% 2.70 +44.7%

Draw 22.7% 28.2% 3.55 -11.7%

Away win 23.6% 48.5% 2.06 -30.8%

Over 2.5 63.1% 74.1% 1.35 -14.8%

Over 3.5 38.8% 52.6% 1.90 -26.3%

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 35.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Böljan2.0

Åstorp1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BÖLJAN · PPG 1.86

ÅSTORP · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Böljan (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +44.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.7%

Åstorp (A) 23.6%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -30.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Böljan face Åstorp in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Böljan a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Åstorp 24%, so Böljan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Böljan and 1.2 for Åstorp (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Böljan are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Åstorp.

Böljan vs Åstorp Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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