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Västra Frölunda vs Hestrafor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Västra Frölunda

PPG 1.88 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hestrafor

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.3%0-22.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.3%1-15.8%1-25.2%1-33.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.3%2-17.6%2-26.7%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.7%3-16.5%3-25.8%3-33.4%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-17.9%4+-27.0%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 58.8% 1.70 -11.6%

Draw 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -6.4%

Away win 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Over 2.5 68.3% 74.1% 1.35 -7.8%

Over 3.5 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

BTTS 69.6% 74.1% 1.35 -6.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Away O1.5 48.2% 47.6% 2.10 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 52% / xG 2.6-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 5.8%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Västra Frölunda2.6

Hestrafor1.8

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄSTRA FRÖLUNDA · PPG 1.88

HESTRAFOR · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Västra Frölunda (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -11.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.4%

Hestrafor (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Västra Frölunda face Hestrafor in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Västra Frölunda a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Hestrafor 26%, so Västra Frölunda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Västra Frölunda and 1.8 for Hestrafor (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Västra Frölunda are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.00 for Hestrafor. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Västra Frölunda vs Hestrafor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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