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Kongahälla vs Västra Frölunda Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

Kongahälla

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Västra Frölunda

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-19.2%0-29.7%0-36.8%0-4+5.8%1 1-04.5%1-19.4%1-29.9%1-37.0%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.3%2-14.8%2-25.1%2-33.6%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.7%3-31.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 55.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 56.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob54.5%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 1–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongahälla1.0

Västra Frölunda2.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGAHÄLLA · PPG 0.75

VÄSTRA FRÖLUNDA · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.08 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kongahälla (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Västra Frölunda (A) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongahälla face Västra Frölunda in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongahälla a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Västra Frölunda 55%, so Västra Frölunda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kongahälla and 2.1 for Västra Frölunda (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongahälla are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.57 for Västra Frölunda.

Kongahälla vs Västra Frölunda Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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