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Hestrafor vs Qviding FIF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:30

Hestrafor

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qviding FIF

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.2%0-22.2%0-31.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.7%1-15.5%1-25.5%1-33.7%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-26.9%2-34.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.9%3-15.8%3-25.8%3-33.9%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-16.6%4+-26.6%4+-34.4%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 45.5% 2.20 +11.5%

Draw 20.7% 27.4% 3.65 -14.7%

Away win 28.6% 40.8% 2.45 -18.0%

Over 2.5 71.6% 78.1% 1.28 -8.3%

Over 3.5 52.2% 58.1% 1.72 -10.2%

BTTS 69.4% 80.0% 1.25 -13.3%

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 53.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.4%

H 51% / xG 2.5-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.9%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 3–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hestrafor2.5

Qviding FIF2.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HESTRAFOR · PPG 1.43

QVIDING FIF · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hestrafor (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +11.5%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -14.7%

Qviding FIF (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hestrafor face Qviding FIF in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hestrafor a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Qviding FIF 29%, so Hestrafor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Hestrafor and 2.0 for Qviding FIF (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hestrafor are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.38 for Qviding FIF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.0%.

Hestrafor vs Qviding FIF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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