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Lindome vs Astrio Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:30

Lindome

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Astrio

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.0%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-17.5%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-19.4%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.8%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-18.8%4+-23.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.9% 68.0% 1.47 -1.7%

Draw 17.8% 23.0% 4.35 -13.5%

Away win 15.3% 23.0% 4.35 -20.1%

Over 2.5 64.2% 83.3% 1.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 42.6% 64.9% 1.54 -34.4%

BTTS 54.5% 77.5% 1.29 -29.7%

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 23.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–0 8.8%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lindome2.5

Astrio0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LINDOME · PPG 1.00

ASTRIO · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.60 for Home, form 1.00 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lindome (H) 66.9%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -1.7%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -13.5%

Astrio (A) 15.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lindome face Astrio in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lindome a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Astrio 15%, so Lindome are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Lindome and 0.9 for Astrio (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lindome are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Astrio.

Lindome vs Astrio Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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