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Jonsered vs Landvetter IS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Jonsered

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Landvetter IS

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-110.6%0-29.8%0-36.1%0-4+4.3%1 1-05.7%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.9%2-15.4%2-25.0%2-33.1%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 33.9% 2.95 -17.9%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 54.0% 50.0% 2.00 +8.0%

Over 2.5 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Over 3.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 32.1% 43.5% 2.30 -26.2%

Away O1.5 54.7% 54.6% 1.83 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 54% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonsered1.0

Landvetter IS1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JONSERED · PPG 2.00

LANDVETTER IS · PPG 2.29

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.85 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Jonsered (H) 23.8%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -17.9%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

Landvetter IS (A) 54.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonsered face Landvetter IS in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonsered a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Landvetter IS 54%, so Landvetter IS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Jonsered and 1.9 for Landvetter IS (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonsered are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.29 for Landvetter IS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Jonsered vs Landvetter IS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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