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Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 01:00

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

PPG 0.98 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tepatitlán

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.7%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.4%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 52.6% 1.90 -0.1%

Draw 24.4% 27.4% 3.65 -6.6%

Away win 23.0% 27.0% 3.70 -8.9%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Over 3.5 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Away O1.5 26.2% 33.9% 2.95 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 18%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alebrijes de Oaxaca1.7

Tepatitlán1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA · PPG 0.98

TEPATITLÁN · PPG 0.98

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -0.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.6%

Tepatitlán (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alebrijes de Oaxaca face Tepatitlán in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alebrijes de Oaxaca a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Tepatitlán 23%, so Alebrijes de Oaxaca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.0 for Tepatitlán (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alebrijes de Oaxaca are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 0.98 for Tepatitlán.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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