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Tapatío vs CDS Tampico Madero Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Tapatío

PPG 1.49 · HOME

UPCOMING

CDS Tampico Madero

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-110.9%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-112.4%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-17.1%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.1%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 42.6% 2.35 +11.2%

Draw 30.1% 29.9% 3.35 +0.8%

Away win 22.6% 34.7% 2.88 -20.9%

Over 2.5 37.3% 50.0% 2.00 -25.4%

Over 3.5 18.5% 28.2% 3.55 -20.6%

BTTS 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Home O1.5 32.6% 43.5% 2.30 -25.0%

Away O1.5 20.3% 37.7% 2.65 -27.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.4%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–0 18.8%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tapatío1.1

CDS Tampico Madero0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TAPATÍO · PPG 1.49

CDS TAMPICO MADERO · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 1.80 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tapatío (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +11.2%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +0.8%

CDS Tampico Madero (A) 22.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tapatío face CDS Tampico Madero in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tapatío a 47% chance, the draw 30% and CDS Tampico Madero 23%, so Tapatío are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tapatío and 0.7 for CDS Tampico Madero (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tapatío are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.42 for CDS Tampico Madero.

Tapatío vs CDS Tampico Madero Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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