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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tlaxcala Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 01:00

Mineros de Zacatecas

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tlaxcala

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+65.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.5%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.8%1-22.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.4%2-17.6%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-114.3%4+-28.5%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 47.6% 2.10 +32.1%

Draw 16.3% 29.9% 3.35 -27.2%

Away win 20.7% 29.4% 3.40 -17.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 50.0% 2.00 +34.0%

Over 3.5 47.4% 28.6% 3.50 +65.9%

BTTS 62.1% 57.1% 1.75 +8.7%

Home O1.5 77.1% 46.5% 2.15 +65.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 33.9% 2.95 +7.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 63% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 3–0 6.8%

#4 4–1 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mineros de Zacatecas3.2

Tlaxcala1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS · PPG 1.56

TLAXCALA · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 1.56 vs 0.90 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Mineros de Zacatecas (H) 62.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +32.1%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -27.2%

Tlaxcala (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mineros de Zacatecas face Tlaxcala in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mineros de Zacatecas a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Tlaxcala 21%, so Mineros de Zacatecas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Mineros de Zacatecas and 1.2 for Tlaxcala (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mineros de Zacatecas are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.90 for Tlaxcala. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +98.0%.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Tlaxcala Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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