Today / Colombia - Liga Femenina / Orsomarso W vs Deportivo Pasto W

Orsomarso W vs Deportivo Pasto W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 22:00

Orsomarso W

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Pasto W

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-14.6%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.8%1-18.8%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.0%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-15.3%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-13.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.7%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 16.8%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 1–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orsomarso W1.9

Deportivo Pasto W0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ORSOMARSO W · PPG 1.71

DEPORTIVO PASTO W · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.39 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orsomarso W (H) 64.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Pasto W (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Orsomarso W face Deportivo Pasto W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orsomarso W a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Deportivo Pasto W 15%, so Orsomarso W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Orsomarso W and 0.5 for Deportivo Pasto W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orsomarso W are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.14 for Deportivo Pasto W.

Orsomarso W vs Deportivo Pasto W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Liga Femenina Predictions