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Internacional Palmira W vs Junior W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

Internacional Palmira W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Junior W

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-17.8%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.7%1-111.2%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.1%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-13.9%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 59.5% 1.68 -11.6%

Draw 26.8% 30.3% 3.30 -6.9%

Away win 20.7% 20.8% 4.80 -0.4%

Over 2.5 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Over 3.5 25.8% 23.8% 4.20 +5.0%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.7%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional Palmira W1.4

Junior W0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA W · PPG 1.29

JUNIOR W · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Internacional Palmira W (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -11.6%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.9%

Junior W (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional Palmira W face Junior W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional Palmira W a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Junior W 21%, so Internacional Palmira W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Internacional Palmira W and 0.6 for Junior W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional Palmira W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.71 for Junior W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Internacional Palmira W vs Junior W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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