Today / Colombia - Liga Femenina / La Equidad W vs Real Santander W

La Equidad W vs Real Santander W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:00

La Equidad W

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Real Santander W

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-12.7%0-20.4%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.6%1-15.6%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-020.3%2-15.8%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.0%3-14.0%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-13.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 75.2% 1.33 -8.1%

Draw 22.2% 24.4% 4.10 -5.4%

Away win 8.6% 10.3% 9.75 -9.7%

Over 2.5 46.6% 51.3% 1.95 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

BTTS 40.6% 43.5% 2.30 -6.6%

Home O1.5 61.4% 64.5% 1.55 -4.8%

Away O1.5 11.1% 17.4% 5.75 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob40.6%

H 69% / xG 2.1-0.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 20.3%

#2 1–0 19.6%

#3 3–0 14.0%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Equidad W2.1

Real Santander W0.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LA EQUIDAD W · PPG 2.29

REAL SANTANDER W · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.78 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

La Equidad W (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -8.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.4%

Real Santander W (A) 8.6%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

La Equidad W face Real Santander W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Equidad W a 69% chance, the draw 22% and Real Santander W 9%, so La Equidad W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for La Equidad W and 0.3 for Real Santander W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Equidad W are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.71 for Real Santander W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 2-0.

La Equidad W vs Real Santander W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Liga Femenina Predictions