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Deportivo Cali W vs Millonarios W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:00

Deportivo Cali W

PPG 2.57 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Millonarios W

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-18.7%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-112.0%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.8%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Draw 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -10.9%

Away win 20.8% 26.7% 3.75 -13.2%

Over 2.5 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 21.1% 4.75 +22.1%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 39.1% 43.5% 2.30 -10.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 25.6% 3.90 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Cali W1.4

Millonarios W0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO CALI W · PPG 2.57

MILLONARIOS W · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Cali W (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +3.1%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.9%

Millonarios W (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Cali W face Millonarios W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Cali W a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Millonarios W 21%, so Deportivo Cali W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo Cali W and 0.7 for Millonarios W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Cali W are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.71 for Millonarios W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Deportivo Cali W vs Millonarios W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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