Today / Estonia - Esiliiga A / Flora II vs Nõmme Kalju II
Flora II vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A
Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.1% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 64% / xG 3.9-1.9 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 69%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%
Form & verdict
FLORA II · PPG 1.60
NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 0.78
xG gap +1.96 for Home, form 1.60 vs 0.78 - Strong consensus
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Flora II face Nõmme Kalju II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flora II a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Nõmme Kalju II 21%, so Flora II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Flora II and 1.9 for Nõmme Kalju II (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flora II are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.78 for Nõmme Kalju II. This match finished 3-0.