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Nõmme United II vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme United II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tartu Welco

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 84.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.8%0-26.0%0-36.3%0-4+10.8%1 1-01.5%1-14.9%1-27.6%1-38.0%1-4+13.7%2 2-01.0%2-13.1%2-24.8%2-35.0%2-4+8.7%3 3-00.4%3-11.3%3-22.0%3-32.1%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 24.4% 4.10 -27.5%

Draw 17.1% 23.8% 4.20 -16.9%

Away win 69.7% 65.4% 1.53 +6.6%

Over 2.5 72.7% 84.0% 1.19 -13.5%

Over 3.5 53.3% 64.1% 1.56 -16.9%

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.4% 50.0% 2.00 -29.2%

Away O1.5 70.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob63.5%

A 70% / xG 1.3-3.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.0%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 0–3 6.3%

#4 1–4 6.3%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United II1.3

Tartu Welco3.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 1.00

TARTU WELCO · PPG 2.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.88 for Away, form 1.00 vs 2.40

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United II (H) 13.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -27.5%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -16.9%

Tartu Welco (A) 69.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United II face Tartu Welco in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United II a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Tartu Welco 70%, so Tartu Welco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nõmme United II and 3.1 for Tartu Welco (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.40 for Tartu Welco.

Nõmme United II vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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