Today / Estonia - Esiliiga A / Nõmme United II vs Viimsi

Nõmme United II vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme United II

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Viimsi

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.4%0-26.9%0-35.0%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.0%1-18.7%1-29.4%1-36.8%1-4+6.1%2 2-02.7%2-15.9%2-26.4%2-34.6%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-22.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

Draw 21.8% 25.3% 3.95 -8.3%

Away win 50.1% 62.1% 1.61 -19.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 80.6% 1.24 -21.0%

Over 3.5 41.7% 58.8% 1.70 -29.1%

BTTS 62.7% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% 48.8% 2.05 -21.1%

Away O1.5 54.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.7%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United II1.4

Viimsi2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 1.12

VIIMSI · PPG 1.64

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United II (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +3.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.3%

Viimsi (A) 50.1%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United II face Viimsi in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United II a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Viimsi 50%, so Viimsi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nõmme United II and 2.2 for Viimsi (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United II are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.64 for Viimsi.

Nõmme United II vs Viimsi Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Esiliiga A Predictions