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FC Tallinn vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

FC Tallinn

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flora II

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.9%0-25.3%0-34.8%0-4+6.4%1 1-02.2%1-15.9%1-28.1%1-37.4%1-4+9.8%2 2-01.6%2-14.5%2-26.1%2-35.6%2-4+7.4%3 3-00.8%3-12.3%3-23.1%3-32.8%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.2%4+-21.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 19.6% 5.10 +11.3%

Draw 20.5% 21.7% 4.60 -3.4%

Away win 56.2% 72.5% 1.38 -22.4%

Over 2.5 72.7% 86.2% 1.16 -15.7%

Over 3.5 50.6% 67.1% 1.49 -24.6%

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.3% 2.16 -1.9%

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.5%

A 56% / xG 1.5-2.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–3 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tallinn1.5

Flora II2.7

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TALLINN · PPG 1.20

FLORA II · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.22 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Tallinn (H) 23.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +11.3%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.4%

Flora II (A) 56.2%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tallinn face Flora II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tallinn a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Flora II 56%, so Flora II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Tallinn and 2.7 for Flora II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tallinn are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.80 for Flora II.

FC Tallinn vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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