Today / Poland - II Liga - East / Warta Poznan vs Podbeskidzie

Warta Poznan vs Podbeskidzie Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:30

Warta Poznan

PPG 2.21 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Podbeskidzie

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.2%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.2%1-19.9%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-15.9%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 37.0% 2.70 +34.5%

Draw 22.4% 33.3% 3.00 -32.8%

Away win 27.8% 43.5% 2.30 -36.1%

Over 2.5 63.3% — — —

Over 3.5 41.2% — — —

BTTS 63.4% 61.7% 1.62 +2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–2✓ 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Poznan1.9

Podbeskidzie1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA POZNAN · PPG 2.21

PODBESKIDZIE · PPG 1.21

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=49.8%

Win probability 1X2

Warta Poznan (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +34.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -32.8%

Podbeskidzie (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -36.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Poznan face Podbeskidzie in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Poznan a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Podbeskidzie 28%, so Warta Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Warta Poznan and 1.4 for Podbeskidzie (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Poznan are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.21 for Podbeskidzie. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Warta Poznan vs Podbeskidzie Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - II Liga - East Predictions