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Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:30

Monchengladbach

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FSV Mainz

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.5%0-26.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.7%1-111.6%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-17.9%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.4%3-13.6%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 42.0% 2.38 -18.4%

Draw 24.8% 28.6% 3.50 -13.2%

Away win 40.9% 36.4% 2.75 +12.5%

Over 2.5 54.9% 54.6% 1.83 +0.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 32.3% 3.10 +0.8%

BTTS 58.0% 60.6% 1.65 -4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.0%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–1 8.5%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monchengladbach1.4

FSV Mainz1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONCHENGLADBACH · PPG 1.21

FSV MAINZ · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Monchengladbach (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.4%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.2%

FSV Mainz (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monchengladbach face FSV Mainz in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monchengladbach a 34% chance, the draw 25% and FSV Mainz 41%, so FSV Mainz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Monchengladbach and 1.5 for FSV Mainz (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monchengladbach are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.14 for FSV Mainz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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