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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Milsami Orhei Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Regular Season - 5 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 17:00

Sheriff Tiraspol

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Milsami Orhei

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +4.77 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.1%1-10.8%1-20.1%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-05.5%2-11.9%2-20.3%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.4%3-13.3%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-052.7%4+-118.7%4+-23.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.2% — — —

Draw 10.3% — — —

Away win 6.5% — — —

Over 2.5 75.4% — — —

Over 3.5 53.4% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.4%

H 83% / xG 5.1-0.4 / O2.5 75% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 12.3%

#2 4–0 12.0%

#3 3–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 5.5%

#5 5–1 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheriff Tiraspol5.1

Milsami Orhei0.4

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHERIFF TIRASPOL · PPG 3.00

MILSAMI ORHEI · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +4.77 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sheriff Tiraspol (H) 83.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 10.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Milsami Orhei (A) 6.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheriff Tiraspol face Milsami Orhei in Moldova - Super Liga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheriff Tiraspol a 83% chance, the draw 10% and Milsami Orhei 7%, so Sheriff Tiraspol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for Sheriff Tiraspol and 0.4 for Milsami Orhei (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheriff Tiraspol are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Milsami Orhei.

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Milsami Orhei Prediction— Moldova - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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