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CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:30

CSKA Moscow

PPG 1.95 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Rostov

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.7%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.6%1-110.6%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.1%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 16.5% 6.05 +209.8%

Draw 24.6% 24.7% 4.05 -0.2%

Away win 24.2% 62.1% 1.61 -36.6%

Over 2.5 56.0% 51.8% 1.93 +8.1%

Over 3.5 34.5% 31.6% 3.16 +9.0%

BTTS 54.6% 52.6% 1.90 +3.7%

Home O1.5 55.4% 22.7% 4.40 +143.8%

Away O1.5 35.4% 57.8% 1.73 -38.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0✓ 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Moscow1.9

FC Rostov1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 1.95

FC ROSTOV · PPG 1.41

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Moscow (H) 51.2%

ODDS 6.05 · IMPLIED 16.5% EV +209.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.05 · IMPLIED 24.7% EV -0.2%

FC Rostov (A) 24.2%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -36.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Moscow face FC Rostov in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Moscow a 51% chance, the draw 25% and FC Rostov 24%, so CSKA Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for CSKA Moscow and 1.1 for FC Rostov (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.41 for FC Rostov. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +262.7%. This match finished 0-0.

CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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