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Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Dorados Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 01:00

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dorados

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+16.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.6%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.6%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.4%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 52.1% 1.92 +2.7%

Draw 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Away win 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Over 2.5 61.2% 52.4% 1.91 +16.9%

Over 3.5 37.3% 30.8% 3.25 +21.2%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alebrijes de Oaxaca1.9

Dorados1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA · PPG 1.17

DORADOS · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV +2.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

Dorados (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alebrijes de Oaxaca face Dorados in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alebrijes de Oaxaca a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Dorados 24%, so Alebrijes de Oaxaca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.1 for Dorados (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alebrijes de Oaxaca are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.57 for Dorados. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Dorados Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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