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Provincial Osorno vs Concón National Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Provincial Osorno

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Concón National

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.8%0-114.1%0-24.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.2%1-112.3%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.4%2-15.4%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 54.1% 1.85 -25.8%

Draw 33.6% 30.3% 3.30 +10.9%

Away win 26.3% 26.0% 3.85 +0.8%

Over 2.5 34.8% 48.8% 2.05 -28.7%

Over 3.5 18.0% 27.4% 3.65 -20.6%

BTTS 45.5% 54.6% 1.83 -16.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 50.0% 2.00 -35.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 29.9% 3.35 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 25%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 40% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.8%

#2 1–0✓ 19.2%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 14.1%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Provincial Osorno0.9

Concón National0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PROVINCIAL OSORNO · PPG 2.00

CONCÓN NATIONAL · PPG 2.17

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.52 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Provincial Osorno (H) 40.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -25.8%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +10.9%

Concón National (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Provincial Osorno face Concón National in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Provincial Osorno a 40% chance, the draw 34% and Concón National 26%, so Provincial Osorno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Provincial Osorno and 0.6 for Concón National (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Provincial Osorno are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.17 for Concón National. This match finished 1-0.

Provincial Osorno vs Concón National Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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