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Nõmme United II vs FCI Levadia II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme United II

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FCI Levadia II

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.1%0-24.4%0-33.2%0-4+2.8%1 1-03.5%1-17.4%1-28.0%1-35.7%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.1%2-16.7%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.9%3-14.0%3-24.3%3-33.1%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.7%4+-22.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 43.5% 2.30 -27.3%

Draw 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Away win 45.6% 43.5% 2.30 +4.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 78.1% 1.28 -14.0%

Over 3.5 44.1% 58.5% 1.71 -24.6%

BTTS 64.3% 78.1% 1.28 -17.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 62.9% 1.59 -21.8%

Away O1.5 54.7% 62.9% 1.59 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob64.3%

A 46% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 1–2✓ 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme United II1.8

FCI Levadia II2.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 1.20

FCI LEVADIA II · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme United II (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -27.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

FCI Levadia II (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme United II face FCI Levadia II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme United II a 32% chance, the draw 23% and FCI Levadia II 46%, so FCI Levadia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nõmme United II and 2.2 for FCI Levadia II (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme United II are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.12 for FCI Levadia II. This match finished 1-2.

Nõmme United II vs FCI Levadia II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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