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Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 15:30

Bayern Munich

PPG 2.64 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stuttgart

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 88.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.9%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.3%1-13.2%1-22.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.5%2 2-04.1%2-15.9%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-17.2%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-117.0%4+-212.1%4+-35.8%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.0% 71.4% 1.40 +9.2%

Draw 11.5% 19.2% 5.20 -40.2%

Away win 10.4% 16.1% 6.20 -35.5%

Over 2.5 88.2% 80.0% 1.25 +10.3%

Over 3.5 74.6% 61.7% 1.62 +20.8%

BTTS 74.0% 73.5% 1.36 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 87%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob74.0%

H 78% / xG 3.7-1.4 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 4–1 6.6%

#3 2–1 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.1%

#5 3–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Munich3.7

Stuttgart1.4

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 88.2% · O3.5 PROB 74.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MUNICH · PPG 2.64

STUTTGART · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away GOOD (1.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Munich (H) 78.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +9.2%

Draw 11.5%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -40.2%

Stuttgart (A) 10.4%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Munich face Stuttgart in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Munich a 78% chance, the draw 12% and Stuttgart 10%, so Bayern Munich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Bayern Munich and 1.4 for Stuttgart (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Munich are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Stuttgart. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 4-2.

Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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